Below are some quotes from their widely followed commodities team:
1) March 7th, 2008 (oil at $110):
a. Prediction: “Crude oil will surpass $200 in not-too-distant-future”.
b. Result: crude topped at $147 in June and then fell non-stop to $30 in December.
2) Sep 3rd, 2008 (oil at $115):
a. Prediction: “Crude oil will spike up back to $149 by the end of 2008”.
b. Result: see the result above.
3) Dec 13th, 2008 (oil at $35):
a. Prediction: “Due to demand crash, oil price will average $35 in the first half of 2009”.
b. Result: oil bottomed at $30 within a week and then zoomed to over $70, averaging $55 for the first half.
4) June 5th, 2009 (oil at $69):
a. Prediction: “We’re raising our 2009 yearend forecast for oil to $85 from $65”.
b. Result: oil topped at $73 within a month then fell to $59 today.
In other words, Goldman changed its oil price forecast from $200 to $35 within 9 months, then raised it back to $85 within the next 6 months, not mentioning each of the forecasts has been deadly off the mark. Goldman, considered the most powerful investment bank in the world with its alumni executives holding key positions in U.S. government cabinet, was behind every financial bubble in the recent past and survived every time, truly “the Wall Street bubble Mafia” as Rolling Stone called (see the article here:http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/28816321/the_great_american_bubble_machine) Yet Goldman has failed again and again in their forecasts. In fact, investors would likely benefit greatly if they invest in the opposite direction of Goldman’s recommendations. If Goldman has absolutely no clue about the markets, why would investors believe any other investment bank, active fund manager or financial advisor in the world that claims to know where markets are going?
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