Consumer confidence and presidential elections

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, as measured by the Conference Board, declined in May to 64.9 from 68.7. Both figures are abysmally low.

So low, in fact, that the index has prompted economists at the Center for Geoeconomic Studies, part of the Council on Foreign Relations, to predict a loss for President Obama in this November's election.

Going back to 1967, when the index was launched, they have found, it's a "perfect predictor" of whether an incumbent president wins or loses. Whenever the index of consumer confidence averages 95 or better in an election year, the incumbent wins; when it's under 95, he loses. For example, incumbent George W. Bush won with a reading of 96; Bill Clinton, with 105. This year, the index has averaged 67, leaving virtually no chance that it can make 95 for the year as a whole.

U.S. consumers' mood darkens in August: survey

(Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence fell in early August as a growing number of Americans fretted about their finances even though they expected the broader economy to improve, a survey showed on Friday.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its preliminary reading of the index of confidence for August fell to 63.2 from 66.0 in July. This was below economists' median expectation of a reading of 68.5, according to a Reuters poll.

The index of consumer expectations fell to 62.1 in early August, its lowest reading since March and down from 63.2 in July.

"Consumers reported much less favorable assessments of their personal finances even as they were more likely to expect improved conditions in the national economy," the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said in a statement.

The fewest consumers in the survey's sixty-year history reported improved finances, with many citing job losses, shorter working hours and smaller wage gains, said the survey.

U.S. consumer mood highest in 8 months: survey

The gradual healing in consumer confidence, which hit a 28-year low in November, has been seen as a sign of an economic rebound from the worst downturn since the Great Depression.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its final May reading on consumer sentiments was 68.7, higher than an early May figure of 67.9 and a final April reading of 65.1. This was slightly above economists' median expectation of a reading of 68.0, according to a Reuters poll.

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