Consumer confidence and presidential elections

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, as measured by the Conference Board, declined in May to 64.9 from 68.7. Both figures are abysmally low.

So low, in fact, that the index has prompted economists at the Center for Geoeconomic Studies, part of the Council on Foreign Relations, to predict a loss for President Obama in this November's election.

Going back to 1967, when the index was launched, they have found, it's a "perfect predictor" of whether an incumbent president wins or loses. Whenever the index of consumer confidence averages 95 or better in an election year, the incumbent wins; when it's under 95, he loses. For example, incumbent George W. Bush won with a reading of 96; Bill Clinton, with 105. This year, the index has averaged 67, leaving virtually no chance that it can make 95 for the year as a whole.