News, analysis and personal reflections on the markets & the financial sector
Showing posts with label CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). Show all posts
Showing posts with label CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). Show all posts

Monday, July 29, 2013

CBOE to add VIX trading hours in September


(Reuters) — CBOE Holdings Inc said on Monday it will expand trading hours for futures on the CBOE Volatility Index in late September, after a technical glitch delayed the change.


CBOE, operator of the Chicago Board Options Exchange, will add a 45-minute post-settlement trading period to the current trading hours of 7:00 a.m. CT (1200 GMT) to 3:15 p.m CT (2015 GMT) in a first phase of changes. Following the close of trading Monday to Thursday, the market will reopen for a new trading period from 3:30 p.m. CT to 4:15 p.m. CT, according to CBOE.

Trading will then resume at 7:00 a.m. CT the following morning.

A second round of changes to trading hours will begin "in the weeks" that follow the first phase, according to CBOE. It will allow European-based customers to trade VIX futures during their local trading hours by beginning the current trading session at 2 a.m. CT Monday to Friday, instead of the current opening time of 7:00 a.m. CT, the exchange operator said.

The changes are subject to regulatory review.

CBOE had planned to start extending the hours for the contracts at the end of May to get more business overseas. However, a half-day outage at the Chicago Board Options Exchange in April and another more limited outage exposed software problems that came about as it prepared for the longer trading day.

CBOE's proprietary products, led by futures and options on the VIX and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, are a centerpiece of the exchange operator's offerings.

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

VIX Doesn’t Work as Signal for Stocks

(Bloomberg) -- Investors looking for clues about the U.S. stock market should probably ignore the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, according to a study of the VIX by Birinyi Associates Inc.

Speculation that equity returns will be positive after the volatility gauge decreases and negative when it climbs has little basis in fact, Birinyi said. The VIX provides a summary of historical price swings and tends to move in lockstep with equities instead of forecasting their direction, the firm found.

“The VIX is alleged to be an indicative indicator and has become a staple of analysts and journalists alike,” Laszlo Birinyi and analyst Kevin Pleines wrote in a report to clients yesterday. “We respectfully disagree and ultimately conclude it is a measure of current volatility with little or no predictive or indicative value regarding the course of the market.”

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained an average 0.1 percent in the month after the VIX slipped 20 percent below its 50-day mean on 12 occasions since 2003, according to data compiled by Birinyi. Stocks were 0.5 percent lower after two months and 3.3 percent higher after three, the data showed. When the VIX climbed 20 percent above its 50-day average on 18 occasions, equities increased after one, two and three months, then dropped after six, the study found.

Coincidental Indicator

“The VIX is a coincidental indicator,” Birinyi wrote. “It details, perhaps better than other measures, the volatility of the market today but not tomorrow or the day after.”

Traders use the VIX as a gauge of investor fear because it’s derived from the cost of options that insure against losses in the S&P 500. The research by Birinyi Associates in Westport, Connecticut, shows the VIX may work as a contrarian indicator, signaling investors should buy shares when it rises, though the correlation breaks down after three months.

Using the index to show when surging levels of concern may give way to rallies is a conventional tactic in securities markets, according to David Darst, the New York-based chief investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, which has $1.6 trillion in client assets.

“There’s this famous phrase on the floor of the CBOE: When the VIX is high it’s time to buy, and when the VIX is low it’s time to go slow,” Darst said in a telephone interview. “That’s been a famous trader’s rallying cry for years and years.”

Two-Year Low

The VIX fell 18 percent this year to 17.69 through yesterday, and slipped 5.3 percent to 16.75 as of 11:14 a.m. in New York today, the lowest level since May 2008. That’s below the average reading of 20.3 during the measure’s two-decade history. Options are derivatives that give the right to buy or sell assets at a set price by a specific date.

The S&P 500 has increased 4.5 percent in 2010 and is up 72 percent since declining to a 12-year low on March 9, 2009. The VIX has retreated 66 percent during the rally, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The index is supposed to gauge investor expectations for market swings over the next 30 days using a formula that incorporates implied volatility, a key measure of options prices, for S&P 500 Index puts and calls that are one or two months from expiration. Puts give owners the right to sell an underlying security, and calls convey the right to buy.

“I wouldn’t use it as a prospective forward-looking tool simply because the market is inherently unpredictable,” said John Carey, a Boston-based money manager at Pioneer Investment Management, which oversees more than $200 billion. “I look at the VIX and some of those other charts from time to time. It’s certainly one of a number of measures of market mentality and market emotion.”

Birinyi, a research and money-management firm that oversees about $300 million, analyzed the VIX’s performance since September 2003, including six periods of “extreme” volatility. The following is a table of the S&P 500’s average gain or loss during periods after implied volatility climbed above or fell below the 50-day average:

Monday, February 15, 2010

Understanding the VIX

Everyone associates volatility and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) with options trading, but you need to pay attention to volatility even if you never touch an option. And it has nothing to do with using the VIX as a "fear gauge" to time the market.

As the great Dr. Brett Steenbarger said, "Personality research suggests that each of us, based on our traits, possess different levels of financial risk tolerance. Our risk appetites are expressed in how we size positions, but also in the markets we trade. When markets move from low to high volatility, they become threatening for risk-averse traders. The volatility of markets contributes to volatility of mood because the potential risks and rewards of any given trade change meaningfully."

Volatility levels can and should dictate everything about your trading, from price targets and stop levels to position sizing.

Quite simply, an increase in volatility is tantamount to an increase in trading size. Consider a $50 stock, we'll call it XYZ. Let's say XYZ carries a volatility of 32. We can divide the volatility by the square root of the number of trading days per year (about 252) and approximate the expected range of XYZ in a given day.

Conveniently, the square root of 252 is near 16, so "the market" expects XYZ to have a range of about 2% per day (32 divided by 16), right?

Well, not exactly. We converted the volatility back to a standard deviation, so it's really saying that 68% of all days should fall within that standard deviation. That is, on 68% of all days, XYZ will trade within a 2% range.

But for the purposes of this example, let's just say a 2% move is the daily expectation for XYZ. That, of course, is $1 for a $50 stock.

Now, suppose the volatility of XYZ volatility doubles to 64. Now the market prices in $2 or so moves per day. The risk level of your trading, therefore, has now doubled.

If you maintain the same size position, or day trade with the same quantity as before, you're essentially doubling your exposure. That's only a good thing if you win.

Frankly, I'd say it's a mistake either way. When volatility doubles, you need to halve your position.

Volatility should affect our price parameters for the exact same reason. If you're day or swing trading, you need to widen your price targets commensurate with the lift in volatility lest you give away a good trade too quickly for the new backdrop. Likewise, you need to widen stops so as to avoid getting shaken out too quickly.

For example, if you were trading the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) and volatility as measured by the VIX rose 50%, then that would imply that the SPY should have about 1.5 times the range it had before the ramp. So it would be vital to adjust accordingly by reducing position sizes and widening targets.

Thursday, January 21, 2010

Options Traders Boost Bets VIX Will Jump 74% as Stocks Retreat

(Bloomberg) -- Traders speculating stocks will fall boosted bets that the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index will jump 74 percent by Feb. 17, based on today’s most- active contract.

About 37,700 February 32.50 calls on the VIX changed hands, the highest in a week. The security, which has a strike price 74 percent above yesterday’s close, has been the most-traded among VIX contracts for the past two days. The benchmark gauge for U.S. stock options climbed 16 percent to 21.76 as of 2:03 p.m. in New York for the biggest intraday advance since Nov. 27.

Traders who purchase options that pay off when the VIX rises are usually speculating equities will retreat because the gauge moves in the opposite direction of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index more than 80 percent of the time.

“With the market pulling back the last couple days there’s been an increase in call buying,” said Jeremy Wien, a VIX options trader at Societe Generale SA in New York. “People want to be sure they’re protected on the downside.”

The S&P 500 slid 1.7 percent to 1,118.77 following a White House proposal to reduce risk-taking at banks. The equity gauge is down 2.8 percent in the last two sessions, its largest slide since October, while the VIX rallied 21 percent. Before Jan. 20, the options measure had fallen 19 percent this year.

Open interest, or number of outstanding contracts, for the February 32.5 calls has more than tripled this month to 84,637. Those options have the fifth-largest open interest among all contracts linked to the VIX.

Calls Rally

The February 32.5 calls climbed 57 percent to 55 cents. Ninety-nine percent of the securities traded today changed hands on the ask price, which indicates that buyers initiated almost all of the transactions. The VIX, which has averaged 20.28 over its 19-year history, last closed above 32.5 on June 16.

The VIX gauges investor expectations for market swings over the next 30 days using a formula that incorporates the implied volatility, a key gauge of options prices, for S&P 500 puts and calls that are one or two months from expiration.

“A large customer is out there buying volatility,” said David Lutz, managing director of equity trading at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. in Baltimore. “There continues to be a lot of concern going on with sovereign debt, commercial real estate. There’s just a tremendous amount of headwinds out there.”

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Trade Volatility As If It Were a Stock

Option traders buy and sell two elements: time and volatility. Many option traders, myself included, rarely touch the underlying security. The closest we ever get to owning a stock is to own deep-in-the-money calls; shorting a stock means buying deep-in-the-money puts.

Unlike stock traders, pure option traders rarely suffer from exposure to the market's direction. They often structure positions on both sides composed of puts and calls, long and short, in complex structures that are both direction and delta-neutral.

VOLATILITY RISK

But those of us who purely trade options have a different problem: We are constantly exposed to the risk of rising or falling volatility. Consider, for example, a trader who focuses on condors—one of the most popular option structures composed of a short strangle bracketed by a wider, less expensive long strangle. Condors are a bet on falling or stable volatility because they generate profit from stable time decay; rising volatility is the enemy.

But hedging a portfolio of condors or other trades that are short volatility is difficult. Until recently, the only choice was VIX options. But VIX options are European style expiration and often illiquid. Sometimes the spot VIX rises and out-of-the-money call prices barely budge because sellers are under no immediate pressure to close their short positions until expiration.

As these words were being written, the spot VIX was 17.67. February 18 calls were priced at $4.60 (220 percent implied volatility), but February 18 puts were worth only $0.25 (0 percent implied volatility) despite being in-the-money.

VIX FUTURES

The alternative has been to hedge with VIX futures. Unfortunately, not all option traders are experienced futures traders, and trading VIX futures can be a complex problem when they are being used to hedge a portfolio with specific expiration time frames. Trading futures involves understanding two important dynamics: contango (near expiration less expensive than far), and backwardation (near expiration more expensive).

AN ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION

Luckily, thanks to Barclays Bank PLC, we now have an alternative investment vehicle that tracks a blend of futures contracts on the VIX. There are two choices, VXX (short term) and VXZ (mid-term). Each is an Exchange Traded Note (ETN), an unsecured debt security issued by Barclays that trades like an ETF:

•iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX): Designed to track VIX short-term futures by providing a daily rolling long position in the first and second month VIX futures contracts.

• iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN (VXZ): Designed to track VIX mid-term futures by providing a daily rolling long position in the fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh month VIX futures contracts .

ETN STRATEGIES

Option traders who sell volatility in their portfolio can use these ETNs as a hedge. Furthermore, differences between long- and short-term views of the market often suggest more complex strategies. It might make sense, for example, to short the near-term VIX while being long mid-term. If the market becomes unstable, interest rates rise or the recovery sputters, those dynamics are likely to be more heavily represented in VXZ than in VXX.

Another choice might be a collar (long the mid-term ETN (VXZ), short current month calls and long current month puts). The trade can be renewed each month as the options expire. If the view that forward looking futures prices are likely to climb faster than the spot is correct, then this trade should deliver a hefty profit as the gain from VXZ will outperform the loss from the sale of calls on the index.

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Trading in CBOE Volatility Options

CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) Options

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a key benchmark of expected market volatility, as measured by options prices on the S&P 500 index (SPX).

Important differences between volatility options and other index options:


Quoting – Volatility-related index options quotes are based on the expected value at expiration, and are not the same as the "spot" price, which represents the current index value.
Expiration and settlement – Volatility-related index options normally expire on a Wednesday, with settlement completed the following day. The last trade day is typically the Tuesday before expiration.
The following CBOE volatility indexes are available:

Volatility-Related Index Underlying Index* Index Symbol* Settlement Symbol*
CBOE Volatility Index® S&P 500 (SPX) VIX VRO
CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility IndexSM NASDAQ-100 (NDX) VXN VSX
CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility IndexSM Russell 2000 (RUT) RVX RSL
* To access quotes or options chains through Power E*TRADE Pro or E*TRADE MarketTrader, enter a dollar sign before the symbol – for instance, $VIX instead of VIX.

VIX Q&A
http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/VIXoptionsFAQ.aspx

Expiration
VIX index options normally expire on a Wednesday-more specifically, on the Wednesday that is 30 days prior to the next Friday SPX options expiration. (This is an important distinction from other index options, which expire on Fridays.) Typically, the last trade day for VIX index options is the Tuesday before Wednesday expiration.

The timing of expiration each month depends on how many weeks there are between SPX options expirations:

When there are four weeks between SPX expirations - VIX index options expire on the Wednesday before the third Friday of the month (not necessarily the third Wednesday)
When there are five weeks between SPX expirations - VIX index options expire on the Wednesday after the third Friday
Expiration dates for VIX index options in the second half of 2008 are:

August 20, 2008
September 17, 2008
October 22, 2008
November 19, 2008
December 17, 2008

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Volatility index indicates potential shift in market's course

The CBOE Volatility Index and the S&P 500 generally move in opposite directions, but both moved lower Tuesday. One analyst said the move indicates a possible shift in the overall course of the stock market. "Typically, if the S&P moves 3%, VIX will move 10% in the opposite direction. And, when the VIX is stubborn and doesn't move as much you'd expect, it is often forecasting a change in direction," said Randy Frederick of Schwab Center for Financial Research. "Given today's movement ... it tells me the profit taking is done, and maybe we're ready to stabilize or go back into an up trend."