News, analysis and personal reflections on the markets & the financial sector
Showing posts with label commodities. Show all posts
Showing posts with label commodities. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Commodities - 2011 Performance - Milk Is Leading the Commodity Pack

Milk Is Leading the Commodity Pack
  COMMODITIES YTD
LastYTD % Change
Milk17.0524.27%
Feeder Cattle150.27521.24%
Gas Oil921.2519.95%
Brent Crude Oil109.2715.32%
Heating Oil2.908514.40%
Live Cattle123.213.71%
Gold1595.512.25%
Crude Oil101.3410.90%
RBOB Gasoline2.688810.64%
Lean Hogs85.757.52%
Source: CNBC Analytics/Thomson Reuters

Sunday, November 7, 2010

Emerging Markets Hearts Commodities

above - From Michael Cembalest of JPMorgan
below - Courtesy of the World Bank



Monday, August 16, 2010

CFTC fines a former ConAgra unit for pushing up crude oil's price

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission fined a former unit of ConAgra Foods $12 million for driving up the price of crude oil to $100 a barrel. The CFTC said a trader, who was not named, caused a "non-bona fide price" to be posted for the benchmark contract of crude-oil futures. Commodity-trading house Gavilon has since acquired the trading operations of the ConAgra division.

Monday, February 8, 2010

Mongolia Considers Selling Stakes of Copper, Coal, Gold Assets

(Bloomberg) -- Mongolia, the Asian nation with some of the world’s largest untapped mineral resources, is considering setting up separate companies owning the country’s gold, copper and coal reserves and using investment banks to sell shares to global investors, the prime minister said.

The country will start the process toward listing this year and plans to sell shares first on the Mongolian Stock Exchange, Prime Minister Sukhbaatar Batbold said in an interview yesterday in Ulan Bator, the capital. Mongolia plans to hire international investment banks to help it sell shares abroad, he said.

“The parliament has given the approval for the government to start the preparation” for the share sales, Batbold said. “This is a demand and a necessity for Mongolia, to make best use of these resources to develop Mongolia.”

The share sales will potentially transform the country’s economy. About one-third of Mongolia’s population of roughly 3 million is classified as poor and herders in western regions face food shortages this year, according to the United Nations. Mongolia is seeking $25 billion in overseas investment over five years to develop metal and coal resources.

“I think it makes sense as long as Mongolia puts sizeable assets into these companies,” said Alisher Djumanov, Beijing-based chief executive officer of Eurasia Capital Management. He estimates the country could raise as much as $3 billion in three years selling equity stakes in resource companies.

Mongolia hasn’t yet decided whether to group all asset classes into three companies, as the Wall Street Journal reported Dec. 10, or to create smaller companies around specific commodities, Batbold said.


State Control


“It would also make it much easier to market these companies if they were only dealing with one resource, such as copper, uranium or coal,” Djumanov said.

Mongolia is seeking to develop the $2 billion Tavan Tolgoi coal deposit and last October signed an agreement with Canada-based Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group to help develop the $4 billion Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold project starting in 2013. The project, which London-based Rio has called the world’s largest such resource, may operate for as long as 30 years and generate $30 billion to $50 billion in revenue, Mongolian President Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj said last September.

Earlier yesterday, Batbold said that while he doesn’t rule out foreign ownership of the $2 billion Tavan Tolgoi coal deposit, state ownership is preferred.

“We have not ruled out foreign mining companies having a stake, but our preferred option is complete state control,” Batbold said at a press conference, where he is hosting an investment conference. “Ownership and investment of all the big projects will be decided on a case by case basis.”

Among the companies which have expressed an interest in developing Tavan Tolgoi are Peabody Energy Corp. and China Shenhua Energy Co., Batbold said in the interview. The country’s parliament is due to make a decision on the mine in its session beginning in April, Mining Minister Dashdorj Zorigt said in an interview yesterday.

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Contango

Contango is a term used in the futures market to describe an upward sloping forward curve (as in the normal yield curve). One says that such a forward curve is "in contango" (or sometimes "contangoed").

Formally, it is the situation where, and the amount by which, the price of a commodity for future delivery is higher than the spot price, or a far future delivery price higher than a nearer future delivery.

The opposite market condition to contango is known as backwardation.

Occurrence
A contango is normal for a non-perishable commodity which has a cost of carry . Such costs include warehousing fees and interest forgone on money tied up, less income from leasing out the commodity if possible (e.g. gold). However, markets for non-perishable goods may also exist in a state of contango.

The contango should not exceed the cost of carry, because producers and consumers can compare the futures contract price against the spot price plus storage, and choose the better one. Arbitrageurs can sell one and buy the other for a risk-free profit too.

In 2005 and 2006 the crude oil market was in contango. This was a result of the perception of a future supply shortage. Many hedge funds took advantage of the arbitrage opportunity by buying present oil, selling a future contract and then simply storing the oil for future delivery. It was estimated that perhaps a $10-20 per barrel premium was added to spot price of oil as a result of this. The contango ended when global oil storage capacity became exhausted.[1]

For perishable commodities, price differences between near and far delivery are not a contango. Different delivery dates are like different commodities in this case, since fresh eggs today are not fresh in 6 months time, or 90-day treasury bills will mature, etc.