Elliott wave: 'Time to exit'

"The stock market is poised to complete the bear market rally from March," says technical expert Steven Hochberg in The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Here's his bearish call.

"On April 2, we forecast a rally that would carry the Dow to 9,000-10,000 and the S&P 500 to 1000. These levels have now been met.

"We felt this price target would represent a respectable place to exit long positions. But we know from past experience that many will hold out for even higher prices.

"The most 'respectable' exit point is fast approaching, if not already at hand. Instead of angling for the exit ramp, however, investors are accelrating into the fast lane -- just in time for the big pile up.

"Besides achieving the price objectives originally forecast in April, the five-month push has generated optimistic extremes that exceed those that were recorded at the October 2007 all-time high.

"The worst seasonal month of the year historically -- September -- is at hand. Prices should decline at least as fast as they rebounded.

"The next phase of the ongoing bear market should be the strongest. Credit spreads narrowed to levels last seen in January 2008, also fulfilling our previous forecast. Spreads should deteriorate to record levels in conjunction with the next leg down in equities.

"Gold and silver both remain in downtrends that are far from complete. A key market for the still-unfolding deflation is the U.S. dollar.

"Against a backdrop of near-universal scorn, the dollar is forming a major bottom and the next multi-month move should be up."