S&P 500 just formed a "golden cross"

The S&P 500 just formed a "golden cross," implying a trend change for the better. But other indicators still point downward.

The Standard & Poor's 500 just gave a signal that usually indicates a rising trend is in place that typically lasts for months, not just days.

The indicator, dubbed the "golden cross," occurs when the 50-day moving average of the index rises above the 200-day moving average. The crossover of those moving averages typically indicates the market's medium-term trend has shifted to the upside, rather than being just a short-term blip.

But what makes me very leery of the current golden cross is the proximity of serious chart resistance. Trading from January through July 2007 left a huge zone of overhead supply that already served to halt rallies in October and late November.

And even if the S&P 500 can move through the 1265-1290 zone (it traded at 1281 Thursday), the challenges above in the 1350 area are even stronger.

Adding to my apprehension is the fact that of all the major stock-market indexes, only the Dow Jones Industrial Average joined the S&P 500 with a respective signal. Neither Nasdaq Composite nor the small-capitalization Russell 2000 did. And nor did the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 (the regular S&P 500 is capitalization-weighted and heavily influenced by larger stocks).

So far, the market is not speaking with a unified voice.

Another troubling factor is the strength of the dollar. Specifically, the U.S. Dollar Index, a basket of six currencies and heavily weighted in the euro, is near a 52-week high. Given that stocks—representing aggressive or risk assets—and the dollar—representing defensive, or safety assets—currently have an inverse relationship, it does present a dilemma for stock bulls.