Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev (also written Kondratieff) has graphed what are now called "Supercycles, surges, long waves or K-waves." Introduced in 1925 in his book, The Major Economic Cycles, he thinks international economies fluctuate in 40 to 60 year cycles.Based upon Kondratiev's conclusions, his report was viewed as a criticism of Joseph Stalin's stated intentions for the total collectivization of agriculture. Soon after, he was dismissed from his post as director of the Institute for the Study of Business Activity in 1928. He was arrested in 1930 and sentenced to the Russian Gulag (prison); his sentence was reviewed in 1938, and he received the death penalty, which it is speculated was carried out that same year.
Kondratiev's major premise was that capitalist economies displayed long wave cycles of boom and bust ranging between 50-60 years in duration. Kondratieff's study covered the period 1789 to 1926 and was centered on prices and interest rates. Kondratiev's theories documented in the 1920's were validated with the depression less than 10 years later.
more at
No comments:
Post a Comment