DeMark, whose prediction last month that the S&P 500’s decline would stop at 1,076 proved prescient when the index bottomed at 1,074.77, said the rally that lifted the benchmark as much as 14 percent since then will fizzle. The S&P 500 will rise as high as 1,254 before falling at least 5.6 percent, he wrote in an e-mail today.
“This rally should squeeze short sellers and exhaust late buying,” said DeMark, the founder of Market Studies LLC. “The rally should be fast.”
The benchmark gauge for U.S. equities jumped 11 percent in the nine days ended Oct. 14, the biggest advance since March 2009, on optimism over corporate earnings and steps by European leaders to support banks. The rebound brought the gauge close to the top of a price range between 1,074.77 and 1,230.71, where it’s traded for more than two months. The index gained 0.8 percent to 1,210.74 at 11:44 a.m. New York time.
The S&P 500 would produce a sell signal today by closing above its Oct. 12 close of 1,207.25, marking the ninth consecutive day that the benchmark exceeded its final price four days earlier, DeMark said. A close above a two-month high of 1,224.58 reached on Oct. 14 would “perfect” the sell setup, according to DeMark, who has spent more than 40 years developing indicators with names like “sequential” and “countdown.”
The model calls for “one day of grace” should the index fail today to surpass its close four days ago. In that case, should tomorrow’s open exceed the Oct. 12 close, it would suffice for the sell setup, DeMark said.
DeMark, an adviser to Steven A. Cohen’s SAC Capital Advisors LP, provided consulting to hedge funds including George Soros’s Soros Fund Management LLC and Leon Cooperman’s Omega Advisors Inc. Advisors Inc. He said during an interview on Aug. 16 that some European banks are “bottoming right now” and companies such as Societe Generale SA, BNP Paribas SA, UBS AG and Credit Agricole SA “look like buys.”
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